Will the arrival of the Olympic torch in 96 days on February 12, 2010 in Vancouver mark the beginning of a new phase of the "Flu-Kraine" plague--the contamination of North America by athletes from European countries?
With the "Flu-Kraine" mystery disease showing no signs of abating, will the Olympians bring a new, perhaps deadlier, flu strain, or a pneumonic plague virus that will spread across North America?
Will athletes from infected countries be banned from participating?
Will the Vancouver Olympics be cancelled?
When a virus is passed from animal to animal, animal to human, or human to animal, these interactions can lead to rapid evolution of flu viruses and the emergence of new strains.
Thus far, there have been transmissions between animals (swine and birds) and humans to animals (cats, swine, turkeys, ferrets, dogs) and animals to humans (swine to human).
When viruses are passed between animals or species they can mutate, combine two viruses to create a new variant; this occurs at a gene level, where segments of DNA/RNA mix and change places on genetic strands.
"an alteration in the nucleotide sequence of the DNA coding for a gene or through a change in the physical arrangement of a chromosome."
http://medical-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Virus+mutation
Someone who has been vaccinated against the H1N1 flu virus will have a modicum of protection from other very similar viruses, generally, a new flu strain requires a vaccination for that particular virus. Generally, when someone has been infected with a specific virus, they are assumed to be unable to be reinfected with the same virus.
"The H1N1 Swine flu virus (containing segments of bird, pig and human flu virus), has shown itself capable of passing from human to human and causing human fatalities.
The worst flu pandemic to affect the global human population in recorded history was the outbreak of 1918-19, estimated to have caused between 20 – 50 million deaths worldwide. At the time in the US, there were numerous instances recorded of farmers catching the flu from their pigs or passing the flu onto their pigs – leading to speculation as to whether pigs were the original source of the infection. Since that time human to pig and pig to human flu cases have been well-documented, with the increased scale and close-confinement of the animals recognised as a key factor.
Recent US studies show that people working on intensive pig farms may kick-start flu epidemics by adding to the variety of viral strains that can then be mixed and 'reassorted' through the pigs to create new, more virulent forms of influenza capable of infecting humans and pigs alike – so providing the perfect conditions for a pandemic. As the study notes, these farm workers, 'may serve as a conduit for a novel virus to move from swine to man or from man to swine.' "
"Pandemic H1N1 is widespread in humans and the vast majority of infections of humans are from virus in other humans. However, the ability of this virus to jump species increases viral interactions that can result in the exchange of genetic information via recombination and reassortment.
Transmission to swine has been reported at an increasing frequency. Yesterday a jump to swine in Taiwan was reported and today a jump to swine in Hong Kong was reported. Multiple examples in North and South America, as well as Europe, Asia, and Australia have been reported previously, and as the level of H1N1 in humans increases, the frequency of such jumps will likely increase.
However, the pandemic H1N1 is a swine virus, so there have been prior opportunities to acquire genetic information from viruses that co-infect swine. The report of jumps to turkeys however, increased concern that the virus was quite promiscuous and could jump to multiple species.
The concerns were increased by two reports of jumps to pet ferrets. Last year a virus from the first reported natural infection in ferrets was found to be an H1N1 classical swine virus. Therefore, a jump of swine H1N1 to pet ferrets was not unexpected. However, these jumps were accompanied by assurances about jumps in other pets, since H1N1 had not been previously reported in cats or dogs. However, the ability of the virus to jump to other mammals was increased by the reports of jumps to avian species , such as the turkeys described above.
Moreover, the pandemic H1N1 had a high attack rate. The explosion of cases in the fall was tightly linked to school openings. The virus would quickly spread in schools leading to double digit absenteeism and associated infections of teachers and staff. In schools that had absences in the range of 20-30% for periods of 1-2 weeks attack rates approaching 100%. This high attack rate in schools has also been reported in anecdotal reports of family attack rates of 100%.
The high attack rates are facilitate by multiple exposures within a families residence. However, this frequent exposure would also apply to family pets that were kept indoors.
The concerns were supported by the recent report of H1N1 in a pet cat. This was the first reported case because of the availability of testing and not due to a unique association / exposures. Concerns that such transfers might be common were supported by anecdotal reports of cats and dogs developing flu-like symptoms following infection in owners and family members. These anecdotal reports suggest that testing of these symptomatic pets will identify a number of such jumps, which raises concerns of interactions with other animal virus.
These interactions can lead to rapid evolution, and the proximity and transmissibility of pandemic H1N1 will lead to frequent transmission to humans.
Extended surveys of sequences from pet isolates should be a top priority.
