"Perfect Storm for Super Flu--100 million Chinese Migrant Workers coming home for the holidays--H1N1 + H5N1, Swine + Bird Flu = Deadly Global Pandemic

 

EARL NASH,  WTFG   Super   Flu  Correspondent      

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The odds that a Super Flu will emerge rise exponentially this week in China as more than one million migrant workers from the south will return home for the holidays in January and February--creating an ideal opportunity for the Bird (Avian) flu to get together with the Swine flu.

The emergence of a Super Flu would be just in time to take it to North America for the Olympics; it could result in the cancellation of the world games in Vancouver.  The Super Flu would also arrive first in coastal port cities--New York, Boston, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Seattle--and major airports.  &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&

   

Another spike in the H1N1 epidemic in mainland China is very likely with migrant workers returning to their homes for holidays in January and February will trigger, according to U.S. virologist, Dr. Lin Xiaoxu.

Almost half of the 225 million migrants are expected to return home by the Chinese New Year at the beginning of February, according to China's National Bureau of Statistics.

The tide of workers mostly comes from southern China, the most highly concentrated region of migrants. Of those returning home, a quarter will set out from Guangdong Province, the factory hub of China.

With a potential virus mutation looming and more wintry weather, Lin said it will become even more difficult to control the H1N1 epidemic.

“People are worried that the avian flu (H5N1) will recombine with H1N1 or have another lethal mutation that strengthens the infectiousness,” Lin said. “Southern China has always been easy prey to outbreaks of epidemics.”

The concern is that H1N1 will recombine with H5N1 avian flu, to create a superflu. H5N1 has a mortality rate as high as 60 percent. Professor Su Ih-jen, former director of Centre for Disease Control in Taiwan, said the H1N1 flu has low mortality but high infectiousness, while the H5N1 bird flu has low infectiousness but high mortality.

“We are more concerned that H1N1 will recombine with seasonal flu,” Su told Sound of Hope radio. He said a lack of effective systems to report H1N1 infections in China means the true numbers are expected to be much higher than those published. 

“Some areas have already had serious outbreaks of avian flu, swine flu, blue-ear pig disease, and hand-foot-mouth disease. I think these areas need to be monitored more carefully,” Lin said.

Lin said that if China’s health department cannot monitor the trend of the virus’ mutation, vaccination will be a daunting task.