The US military has warned that surplus oil production
capacity could disappear within two years and there could be serious shortages
by 2015 with a significant economic and political impact.
The energy crisis outlined in a Joint Operating Environment
report from the US Joint Forces Command, comes as the price of petrol in
Britain reaches record levels and the cost of crude is predicted to soon top
$100 a barrel.
"By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could
entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach
nearly 10 million barrels per day," says the report, which has a foreword
by a senior commander, General James N Mattis.
It adds: "While it is difficult to predict precisely
what economic, political, and strategic effects such a shortfall might produce,
it surely would reduce the prospects for growth in both the developing and
developed worlds. Such an economic slowdown would exacerbate other unresolved
tensions, push fragile and failing states further down the path toward
collapse, and perhaps have serious economic impact on both China and
India."
The US military says its views cannot be taken as US
government policy but admits they are meant to provide the Joint Forces with
"an intellectual foundation upon which we will construct the concept to
guide out future force developments."
The warning is the latest in a series from around the world
that has turned peak oil – the moment when demand exceeds supply – from a
distant threat to a more immediate risk.
The Wicks Review on UK energy policy published last summer effectively
dismissed fears but Lord Hunt, the British energy minister, met concerned
industrialists two weeks ago in a sign that it is rapidly changing its mind on
the seriousness of the issue.
The Paris-based International Energy Agency remains
confident that there is no short-term risk of oil shortages but privately some
senior officials have admitted there is considerable disagreement internally
about this upbeat stance.
Future fuel supplies are of acute importance to the US army
because it is believed to be the biggest single user of petrol in the world. BP
chief executive, Tony Hayward, said recently that there was little chance of
crude from the carbon-heavy Canadian tar sands being banned in America because
the US military like to have local supplies rather than rely on the politically
unstable Middle East.
But there are signs that the US Department of Energy might
also be changing its stance on peak oil. In a recent interview with French
newspaper, Le Monde, Glen Sweetnam, main oil adviser to the Obama
administration, admitted that "a chance exists that we may experience a
decline" of world liquid fuels production between 2011 and 2015 if the
investment was not forthcoming.
Lionel Badal, a post-graduate student at Kings College,
London, who has been researching peak oil theories, said the review by the
American military moves the debate on.
"It's surprising to see that the US Army, unlike the
US Department of Energy, publicly warns of major oil shortages in the
near-term. Now it could be interesting to know on which study the information
is based on," he said.
"The Energy Information Administration (of the
department of energy) has been saying for years that Peak Oil was "decades
away". In light of the report from the US Joint Forces Command, is the EIA
still confident of its previous highly optimistic conclusions?"
The Joint Operating Environment report paints a bleak
picture of what can happen on occasions when there is serious economic
upheaval. "One should not forget that the Great Depression spawned a
number of totalitarian regimes that sought economic prosperity for their
nations by ruthless conquest," it points out.
By Terry
Macalister
Guardian.co.uk
guardian.co.uk © Guardian News and Media Limited 2010
RELATED: How Much Oil Is Left: (interview with
Richard Heinberg)
By Lars
Schall
12 April, 2010
MMnews
One of the
world’s foremost educators on Peak Oil, Richard Heinberg, in an exclusive
interview for MMNews: “We are currently seeing the end of economic growth as we
have known it.” Further on, he talks about the financial / economic crisis,
monetary changes vis-à-vis a shrinking energy supply, and the Century of Declines:
“Peak Everything.”
