by George Ure [http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm]
War Arriving: Then What?
Not that it gets all the attention it deserves in corpgov media/ the MainStreamMedia, but we're up to where we can now refer to Iran as being 'at war alert' levels as the "US and Israeli concentrations" build in Azerbaijan.
What's key here...and this takes a little thinking to
follow....is that the whole world could (unfortunately - literally) 'blow
up' from this region come fall.
On the splintering western side of Georgia which the
US/West has been quick-to-back in South Ossetia, you have Russia trying to keep
a lid on Georgia. down toward their nuke buddies in Tehran, who bought all that
gear from them.
The apparent shift in focus now to Azerbaijan may be
due to the recent deterioration of Israeli relations with Turkey. There
went plans for the "...Planned Iran attack from Caucasus Base."
Since Georgia is such a key piece of Russia's buffer
zone with militant Islam on its southern tier some reasonable speculation would
be that in order to 'keep peace" (and whatever cash flow from
drug/smuggling operations in the region) Russia would not take kindly to
Israeli use of a Georgia airfield - something inconvenient now that relations
with Turkey are faltering.
It's like watching a big chess game in
slow-motion. Israel doesn't have the manpower to militarily fight, occupy
and conquer Iran - they're simply much too big: 545,000 active and 350,000 in ready
reserves, versus Israel's IDF which has 176,500 active and 445,000 in ready
reserves.
The wild card (to be played this fall?) might be a
longer-term Russian expansion in the area to align Iran even more closely with
Moscow, which along the way could be a pretext for Russia taking Georgia - and
we're talking something much bigger than South Ossetia. Another concept
to ponder, what if Iran were (with Russian support) take Azerbaijan and Georgia
in a deal with Russia...which could lead to the kind of global tipping
point/nightmare in predictive linguistics for November 8-12.
The key thing to be pondering when you stare at a map
of this part of the world is not whether or even when Israel will
attack Iran's nuclear infrastructure. Kind of a moot point since they are
within a whisker of having nuclear weapons now.
With a hot date in linguistics out of www.halfpasthuman.com
point to financial change Monday/Tuesday-ish of next week, we have to start
asking the really hard questions about the planned Israeli attack. Not
with an eye to just the event itself. But, more importantly, the larger
historical context: Will this be a larger modern analog to the Archduke Ferdinand assassination that
tipped Europe into World War 1?
As I ponder this, my sense is that Russia will not sit
idly by and let the US or Israel attack Tehran's interests without asserting
their regional power. If you have friends in the business of US
"national technical means" you might keep a keyhole or two open to
watch for Russian troop and equipment movements over summer anywhere south
of Stavropol. They might just clean up Chechnya insurgents,
too, in a larger-scale Turkey/Iranian/Russian pinchers move that could squash
US/Western/Israeli interests in Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia.
Naturally, Russians being known as good chess players
would not give any quarter to the West - which is why a preemptive EMP attack on the West
along in about November has drifted up near the top of my expectations
list. An EMP device exploded in international space (100 km, above
the Kármán line) but nominally over international waters
would disable perhaps 50- 85% of US electrical & computer
infrastructure and would contain the US desire to respond, at least
conventionally.
Problem is, that the US likely would likely
respond (in push the Big Button fashion) with all those naval assets we have in
the region now, which gets me to thinking I should schedule an old-fashioned
BBQ for Christmas. May not be power if things were to stumble along in
this direction after what the linguistics call "the Israeli
mistake". That wouldn't be taking out Iranian nukes, but the fuse to
other events of a more Revelation scale.
